With the Oscars just around the corner, I thought I would give a few littile predictions that probably end up being wrong, and this year it’s essentially a civil war between two very different types of “Big Cinema.”

In one corner, we have Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s vampire Southern Gothic that has secured a history-making 16 nominations, and in the other, we have Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, with 13 nominations and the heavy, humid air of a director who is finally “due” for his crown.

Best Picture: The Vampire vs. The Veteran

The Best Picture race has narrowed down to a classic “Hearts vs. Minds” debate.

One Battle After Another has spent the last month vacuuming up every major precursor, from the Producers Guild (PGA) to the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes.

It is a “consensus” movie – the kind of film that every Academy member can agree is “important” without actually having to explain why at dinner, but the late-season surge for Sinners at the Actor Awards (SAG) has injected a shot of adrenaline into the race.

By winning the Ensemble prize, Sinners proved it has the support of the actors – the largest voting bloc in the Academy – it’s the “people’s choice” with an high-art pedigree.

Who Will Win:
One Battle After Another. The PGA and DGA combo is statistically harder to beat than a vampire with 16 nods.

Who Should Win:
Sinners. If you’re going to give a movie 16 nominations, giving it the top prize is the only way to avoid looking like you have commitment issues.

The Sleeper:
Hamnet. Chloé Zhao’s grief-laden Shakespearean drama is the “refined” choice that could sneak through the middle. It won’t, but it could.

Best Director: The Anderson Coronation

Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for eleven Oscars across his career and has won zero, and in Hollywood, this is considered a tragedy on par with a Botox appointment gone wrong.

After winning the Directors Guild (DGA) and the BAFTA, his victory will feel more like a mandatory retirement contribution.

Ryan Coogler is his only legitimate rival, but the narrative of “Anderson’s Turn” is currently an unstoppable force of nature.

Prediction:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another.

Best Actor: The “Twins” Tussle

This was supposed to be the year of Timothée Chalamet, as his performance in Marty Supreme as a table-tennis prodigy was the early-season favorite, and my personal favorite.

But I am sure the Academy will love a “double-up” (it’s essentially the cinematic equivalent of a high-difficulty dive), and Jordan’s recent upset win at the Actor Awards (SAG) has turned this into a dead heat.

Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio is lurking for One Battle After Another, though he’s mostly there to remind everyone that he’s still Leonardo DiCaprio.

Prediction:
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners. The SAG win is a 75% accurate predictor for the Oscar, and the momentum is currently on the side of the vampires.

Best Actress: The Only Certainty

If you’re looking for drama, don’t look here.

Jessie Buckley’s performance in Hamnet has been described as “raw,” “transformative,” and “the reason everyone in the theater was crying into their $12 popcorn.“

She has swept the BAFTAs, the Globes, and the SAG.

Prediction:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet. You can bet your smart glasses on this one.

The Supporting Brackets: Veterans and Parasites

Best Supporting Actor:

Sean Penn is the frontrunner for his role as the sociopathic Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another, but Stellan Skarsgård Sentimental Value) is the dark horse who could pull an upset if the Academy decides to lean into the international vote.

But I hope Sean Penn wins, so that’s my prediction.

Best Supporting Actress:

This is a three-way tie between

• Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
• Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
• Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Madigan’s recent win at the Actor Awards has given her a late-season “freak-out” factor that the Academy often rewards.

Personally I want Wunmi Mosaku to win, though.

The Technical Ledger: Records and Remakes

The 2026 technical categories are where the records will truly be tallied.

The Final Outlook

We will see One Battle After Another likely take Picture and Director, while Sinners cleans up the technical categories and secures Michael B. Jordan his first gold statue.

By the time the sun rises on March 16, we will have:

• A new set of records
• A new set of snubs to complain about
• And a very long list of movies that are already available to stream on our phones.

It’s a night we shouldn’t really look forward to, but we do.

Simon Leasher

A lover of cinema for over 35 years, I have watched many films from around the world in many different genres, yet I still normally always come back to trashy slasher horror films when in doubt. More

And yes, The Godfather 2 is better than The Godfather.